A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
